Iceland Leading Indicator - Outlook remains good, but more uncertainty come fall

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REYKJAVIK, Iceland, April 17, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland remained unchanged in March for the second consecutive month. There are indications that recent CLI developments represent the renewal of faster growth early this year. However, uncertainty is greater when looking towards year-end.

Three of the six components rise on the previous month. These are the MSCI World Index, fish catches and merchandise imports. The long-term trend of some important CLI components remains strong. The main risk factors continue to include some external factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation.

Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.

There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For the month of March, three of the six underlying components rise year on year. Also, three of the six components rise on the previous month.

Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for March is unchanged at 101.6. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. September 2018. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.

Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2017-2018
Change in % Indication
Index on month YOY for month
  March 99.6 0.0% -1.4% Sept. 2017
  April 99.4 -0.2% -1.5% Oct.
  May 99.1 -0.3% -1.7% Nov.
  June 98.8 -0.3% -2.0% Dec.
  July 98.7 -0.1% -2.0% Jan. 2018
  August 99.2 0.5% -1.5% Feb.
  September 100.0 0.8% -0.7% March
  October 100.7 0.7% 0.2% April
  November 101.2 0.5% 1.1% May
  December 101.5 0.3% 1.7% June
  January 101.6 0.1% 2.1% July
  February 101.6 0.0% 2.1% August
  March 101.6 0.0% 2.0% Sept.

The April Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on May 17, 2018.

Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email:

This announcement is distributed by Nasdaq Corporate Solutions on behalf of Nasdaq Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Analytica via Globenewswire

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Thomson Reuters: 09:00 GMT Tuesday 17th April 2018

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