Comprehensive Overview of the UK's Proposed Departure from the EU and Subsequent Impact on Retail, Q4 Report

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Dublin, Jan. 11, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The report has been added to offering. The report "Brexit and the Impact on Retail - Thematic Research" provides a comprehensive overview of the UK's proposed departure from the European Union and the subsequent impact on retail. It covers macroeconomic and retail market modelling using different scenarios of the Brexit negotiations; analysis of how immigration, the Irish border and changes to tariffs will effect retail markets; and sector analysis of the individual retail markets.As the UK approaches the 29th March 2019, companies are yet to fully comprehend the impact Brexit will have on retail. As political negotiations and parliamentary votes are yet to settle the final rules and implications of the UK's departure, unknown territory must be navigated in planning for the Brexit transition process.The Parliamentary vote on the Withdrawal agreement previously scheduled for 11th December has been delayed, so the final result of the Brexit negotiations remain uncertain. If the deal is accepted plans will be in place to proceed with the terms of the deal including a two year transition period and backstop agreement on the Irish border. However if rejected the UK will continue to face uncertainty. The analysis of the report takes three key Brexit scenarios to look at the implications for retail.Brexit outcomes that create trade divisions between the UK and the EU will see a potentially steep increase in food prices. Higher import costs (through tariffs and the falling pound) that retailers will in part pass to consumers as well lack of availability (due to border delays) will result in higher demand and limited supply. This would see prices on basic foodstuffs rise by as much as 10% in a worst-case scenario.Non-food retail growth is expected to slow significantly in the event of no deal, with the forecast rise in inflation failing to offset a drag on consumer confidence and a sharp decline in volume growth. As a higher proportion of disposable spend would be dedicated to food in the face of high grocery inflation, shoppers will cut back on discretionary spend of non-food categories. Clothing & footwear, homewares and furniture & floorcoverings are expected to be most adversely affected by a reduced spending.Consumer sentiment has been shown to react immediately to political upheaval with uncertainty being a key factor. The case of a no-deal Brexit or delayed withdrawal will almost certainly have an effect on lowered consumer confidence. However, it is expected that a small proportion of consumers who remain positive regarding the future of Brexit and have the means to do so, will continue to spend. If the Withdrawal Agreement is passed, we would see a minimised effect of lowered confidence on retail spend.The report goes on to discuss the impact of Brexit on leading retailers, and provides consumer survey data on sentiments around the expected impact of Brexit on personal finances and shopping habits.

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Globe Newswire: 10:47 GMT Friday 11th January 2019

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